The Breeders’ Cup, one of horse racing’s most prestigious events, returns to Santa Anita racetrack for the 11th time in its 40 years. Nine races are scheduled for Saturday; the highlight of the day is the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a 1¼-mile test of speed, stamina and heart that often crowns the Horse of the Year. In a twist this year, the Classic won’t be the final race on the card. Instead it will be followed by the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
There will be some familiar names absent from American horse racing’s most lucrative weekend. Kentucky Derby winner Mage was pulled from the Classic because of a decreased appetite. Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo dropped out of the $6 million Classic because of a foot problem and will be retired to stand at Lane’s End Farm for the 2024 season. Forte, the champion 2-year-old male of 2022, has been retired from racing and will begin a career as a stallion at Spendthrift Farm next year. Five-time Grade/Group 1 winner Modern Games, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in 2021 and the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2022, has also been retired from racing and will begin a new career as a stallion. Nest, a three-time Grade 1 winner, will be offered in the Fasig-Tipton November sale as a racing or broodmare prospect.
Below are selections for each championship race on Saturday. These contenders include my top pick to win, and other horses that should provide good value in multi-race wagers such as the Daily Double and the Pick 3, Pick, 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6 rather than exactas, trifectas and superfectas. The Breeders’ Cup All-Turf Pick 4 on Saturday is a 50-cent minimum wager and will include the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Breeders’ Cup Mile, Breeders’ Cup Turf and Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. The Breeders’ Cup will also offer the Breeders’ Cup All-Dirt Pick 4 on Saturday, which is a 50-cent minimum wager encompassing the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The takeout on these two Pick 4 wagers will be 15 percent. There also will be three Pick 5 options. The early Pick 5 will start with Race 1, the middle Pick 5 will start with Race 3 and the late Pick 5 will begin with Race 7.
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My fair value for each horse is also listed. Odds higher than the fair value warrant a win bet. Anything lower and it is a pass. In some cases, the fair-value odds will differ significantly from the morning line, but that’s because the morning line, set by Santa Anita, is not always accurate. For example, Search Results, 5-1 on the morning line in the Distaff, was offered at 7-1 odds by offshore bookmakers. Contenders are listed in order of post position, not in order of preference. All post times are Eastern.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
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Third race, 2:30 p.m. One-mile race for 3-year-olds and up.
Pick: No. 7 Algiers (6-1 on the morning line)
Fair value 6-1
You don’t need me to tell you Cody’s Wish, the reigning Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner with four other Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins to his name, is the class of the field. Yet the 9-5 morning line favorite won’t provide much value at the ticket window. Instead, look for Algiers to win at a decent price.
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He last ran in the Grade 3 Durham Cup at 1 and 1/16 miles on Tapeta at Woodbine after weather disrupted his original plans to start in the Grade 2 Woodward at the Belmont meet at Aqueduct. He finished second by half a length in the Durham Cup and the race before that he was beaten 2¾ lengths in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup (a 1¼-mile race on dirt) by Ushba Tesoro, who is 4-1 on the morning line in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Algiers is also 2 for 3 at a mile.
Other contenders: No. 5 Charge It
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
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Fourth race, 3:10 p.m. 1¼-mile race for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the Hillside Turf.
Pick: No. 11 Lumiere Rock (12-1)
Fair value 10-1
Two kinds of horses win this Breeders’ Cup race at Santa Anita: overseas invaders and horses trained by Chad Brown. Brown’s charge, In Italian, won’t sneak up on anyone so let’s pivot to an international horse in Lumiere Rock.
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Trained by Joseph O’Brien, this filly from Ireland has never finished outside the top four in 11 starts, although she does have a case of seconditis with a 2-5-1 record over those races. Still, she’s shown to be an overachiever with wins at 6-1 and 11-1 odds for a trainer who provides a flat bet profit in both graded stakes races ($1.49 per $2 wager) and turf races ($0.58 per $2 wager) in 14 and 23 starts, respectively.
Other contenders: No. 3 With The Moonlight, No. 6 Inspiral and No. 10 McKulick
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
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Fifth race, 3:50 p.m. Seven-furlong race for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Pick: No. 2 Clearly Unhinged (12-1)
Fair value 10-1
This talented 3-year-old filly won her debut in February and finished a close second in August’s Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga (at 17-1 odds), where she encountered a challenging trip. Clearly Unhinged also earned a career high pace figure to the one-quarter and one-half mile markers in her latest effort, a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Chillingworth Stakes. That’s often a sign of potential future improvement.
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One final note: Clearly Unhinged has won twice and placed once in four starts at Santa Anita.
Other contenders: No. 9 Yuugiri
Breeders’ Cup Mile
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Sixth race, 4:30 p.m. One-mile race for 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the turf.
Pick: No. 11 Kelina (6-1)
Fair value 4-1
Kelina, the daughter of Frankel (sire of 33 Grade 1 winners), will go under the radar, but she has won four of her nine career starts. Her latest victory, the Group 1 Qatar Prix de la Foret, should dispel any doubt about her ability to excel against top competition.
Owners Alain and Gerard Wertheimer hope she will follow in the footsteps of one of their other horses, Goldikova, the only horse to win three Breeders’ Cup Mile races (2008, 2009 and 2010).
Other contenders: No. 2 Gina Romantica, No. 6 Mawj and No. 14 Master of The Seas
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
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Seventh race, 5:10 p.m. 1⅛-mile race for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
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Pick: No. 3 Pretty Mischievous (8-1)
Fair value 11-2
There is a lot of speed in this race. Idiomatic, Adare Manor, Search Results and Randomized will all be looking to either set the pace or be in very close contact with the leader early. That sets up nicely for an off-the-pace runner such as Pretty Mischievous.
Plus, let’s not discount the Into Mischief daughter’s credentials on their face. Breaking her maiden at first asking last September, she has seven wins, two seconds and a third in ten starts. Four of those wins were among Grade 1 and Grade 2 competition at distances ranging from seven furlongs to 1⅛ miles.
Other contenders: No. 5 Adare Manor and No. 9 Clairiere
Breeders’ Cup Turf
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Eighth race, 5:50 p.m. 1½-mile race for 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the Hillside Turf.
Pick: No. 5 Auguste Rodin (3-1)
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Fair value 2-1
We are looking for an overseas horse from Ireland (won 15 of the past 29 Breeders’ Cup Turf races), preferably trained by Aidan O’Brien (who has a record-setting six wins in this race), that has already won a Grade 1 or Group 1 race (10 of the past 12 winners in the Turf satisfied this requirement). Those signs point to Auguste Rodin, the second choice on the morning line.
His impressive victories at varying distances and surfaces, including a triumph against top older rivals in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, demonstrate his exceptional talent and versatility. With a strong pedigree for firm turf and his recent successes, he’s well-equipped for victory at Santa Anita.
Other contenders: No. 4 Bolshoi Ballet, No. 9 Mostahdaf and No. 12 Balladeer
Breeders’ Cup Classic
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Ninth race, 6:40 p.m. 1¼-mile race for 3-year-olds and up.
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Pick: No. 5 Derma Sotogake (20-1)
Fair value 16-1
Japan’s top-rated 2-year-old in 2022 presents a compelling case to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Although his Kentucky Derby bid faced challenges because of a hindered start, his impressive wins in Japan, including the Grade 2 UAE Derby, demonstrate his exceptional potential.
Derma Sotogake’s pedigree — he’s the son of the accomplished Mind Your Biscuits (twice voted New York-bred Horse of the Year) — suggests sprinter speed while his dam, Amour Poesie, brings significant stamina, making him well-suited for the Classic’s distance of 1¼ miles.
Other contenders: No. 2 Zandon
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
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10th race, 7:25 p.m. Five-furlong race for 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the turf.
Pick: No. 10 Motorious (5-1)
Fair value 5-1
Motorious has five races at Santa Anita with two wins, two second-place finishes and one third-place finish, making him the most experienced horse at the track in the field. He’s also 2 for 4 at the distance with two more second-place finishes. Flavien Prat will once again be in the saddle, having ridden this horse to three of his six lifetime victories.
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Other contenders: No. 4 Tony Ann
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
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11th race, 8 p.m. Six-furlong race for 3-year-olds and up.
Pick: No. 6 The Chosen Vron (5-1)
Fair value 4-1
The Chosen Vron has 17 career races and has won 13 of them, both on dirt and turf, only finishing worse than third once when he was pushed three wide in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes two summers ago. He’s three for three at the distance and seven for eight lifetime at Santa Anita. His running style should also keep him close to the first flight of horses in a race that has no real front-runner, keeping the pace slow enough to make a final move near the end.
Other contenders: No. 2 Dr. Schivel
