Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Denver, X-Factor (2024)

This weekend (Sat., July 13, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Ball Arena in Denver, Colo., for UFC Denver. Once again, we’re looking at a reasonably good card that got torched by injury. The loss of athletes in both the main- and co-main events hurts, but at least the remaining halves of those match ups — Rose Namajunas and Drew Dober — remain booked against new opposition. All told, 22 athletes are scheduled to compete in the “Mile High City,” and we’ll find out on fight night who took the time to acclimate to the altitude.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

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Lightweight: Drew Dober (-105) vs. Jean Silva (-115)

Best Win for Dober? Bobby Green For Silva? Charles Jourdain
Current Streak: Dober lost his last bout, whereas Silva has won two in a row inside the Octagon
X-Factor: Silva fought two weeks ago and is fighting up a weight class
How these two match up: Even disregarding the bout’s status as a last-second booking, this is a banger!

Dober is an all-action Lightweight, a Southpaw kickboxer with proven knockout power and durability. Historically, he’s had difficulty getting held down by superior wrestlers, but Dober has improved that aspect of his game enough to become ranked on at least a couple occasions. Silva, meanwhile, is a power-punching Featherweight who just sparked Charles Jourdain at UFC 303 (watch it). He rebounds quickly here and takes a huge jump up in competition, but it’s also a major opportunity for “Lord Assassin.”

For all but the absolute best Featherweights on the roster, taking on Dober on short-notice seems like a really tall task. He’s one of the largest Lightweights on the roster, which makes the challenge even greater. There’s always a chance that Silva can surprise Dober with his speed early on, but even then, Dober has historically been able to take a big shot and bounce back if necessary.

Most likely, the two throw down, it gets a little chaotic, then Dober’s size, power and preparation all pay off in the form of a Lightweight record-setting knockout win.

Prediction: Dober via knockout

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Welterweight: Gabriel Bonfim (-395) vs. Ange Loosa (+310)

Best Win for Bonfim? Trevin Giles For Loosa? John Howard
Current Streak: Bonfim lost his last bout, whereas Loosa won two in a row prior to his “No Contest” vs. Bryan Battle
X-Factor: How does Bonfim respond from his first career defeat?
How these two match up: This feels like an opportunity for Bonfim to bounce back.

The Brazilian is just 26 years of age, but has been a professional since 2014. In his trio of UFC fights, Bonfim has demonstrated serious skill on the feet and on the mat, though Nicholas Dalby was able to out-dog him and hand “Marrentinha” his first career defeat. Despite that loss, he should still be considered a quality Welterweight prospect.

Loosa, meanwhile, is four fights deep into his UFC career. He doesn’t have any particularly standout skills, but well-roundedness and a decent athletic base have kept him around thus far. Truthfully, he was getting touched up in his last bout versus Battle, but a controversial eye poke allowed him an out via “No Contest.”

This feels like a layup for Bonfim, who is technically better and more athletic than his opponent. Loosa is not Bonfim; he doesn’t have the ultra high pace or ridiculous toughness. Hell, he has fewer fights than Bonfim overall, so expecting that kind of “veteran win” seems improbable.

I’m predicting tapout win No. 13 for Bonfim.

Prediction: Bonfim via submission

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Featherweight: Christian Rodriguez (-205) vs. Julian Erosa (+170)

Best Win for Rodriguez? Raul Rosas Jr. For Erosa? Hakeem Dawodu
Current Streak: Rodriguez has won four in a row, while Erosa won his last bout
X-Factor: Erosa is wildly inconsistent
How these two match up: Expect violence.

The third time was the charm for “Juicy J,” who failed to carve out a spot on UFC’s roster until his third stint in the promotion. He did make up for lost time, however, picking up some of the best wins of his entire career almost immediately and establishing himself as a very fun Featherweight action fighter. His defense, unfortunately, remains a weakness.

Rodriguez, meanwhile, has established himself as a quality prospect. At 26 years of age, “CeeRod” has the composure and well-rounded skills of a much more experienced athlete, and he’s made it a habit to outlast his opponents. That said, this is just his second fight at 145 pounds. since being forced up a weight class following two failed Bantamweight cuts.

This is a difficult match up to predict because we haven’t seen Rodriguez fight anyone quite like Erosa ... though admittedly few fight like “Juicy J.” His recent wins have seen him shucking off takedowns and beating up opponents when they tire, but that’s not Erosa’s game at all. Instead, Erosa will be looking to awkwardly pick him apart and make use of his massive height and reach advantages.

Most likely, this one stays on the feet. Rodriguez is the sharper boxer and should have a speed advantage, but the length and craftiness of Erosa remains a significant concern. Rodriguez isn’t much of a knockout artist either, which is historically the way to defeat Erosa.

I think it’s more of a coin toss than the odds indicate, but I’ll still side with the up-and-comer.

Prediction: Rodriguez via decision

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Middleweight: Cody Brundage (+130) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (-155)

Best Win for Brundage? Tresean Gore For Alhassan? Niko Price
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Both tend to win or lose quickly
How these two match up: There’s little chance this one makes it to the judges.

Both athletes are very much finish-or-be-finished fighters, though they go about it in different ways. Brundage is a skilled wrestler who doesn’t like to wait around, pushing the pedal through the floor via heavy overhand swings, big slams, and choke attempts. Alhassan, conversely, is a Judoka who prefers to throw massive bombs, which either knock his opponent senseless or fatigue him badly.

Neither man is particularly defensively savvy here, so it really feels like a question of who lands first whether we’re talking punches or takedowns. Likely, Alhassan is too strong for Brundage to ragdoll to the floor quickly. In that case, he’s stuck on the feet while “Judo Thunder” is at his most powerful, and I’ve never got the feeling that Brundage particularly likes getting hit.

In that case, it won’t take long.

Prediction: Alhassan via knockout

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FLYWEIGHT FIREWORKS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return toBall Arena in Denver, Colo., on Sat., July 13, 2024, for the first time since the historic 25thanniversary event in 2018 with a meaningful (albeit short-notice) showdown between top-ranked women’s Flyweight contenders RoseNamajunas (No. 6) vs. Tracy Cortez (No. 11). In UFC Denver’s co-main event, a thrilling Lightweight bout sees Denver’s own,Drew Dober, lock horns with Jean Silva, who is coming off a blistering knockout over Charles Jourdain just a few weeks ago (watch it).

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